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August 19, 2005
 
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BOX-OFFICE
The Trade Analyses


Posted online: Friday, August 19, 2005 at 0000 hours IST

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It was to have opened last year on August 13 but half-way through 2004, director Ketan Mehta realised that though he’d managed to complete the shooting of his ambitious Hindi-English bi-lingual, Mangal Pandey-The Rising would not be able to keep to its appointed deadline owning to post-production delays.

The producer of the film, Bobby Bedi then set his eyes on a Republic Day release. “Given its subject, January 26 is as appropriate a date as August 15,” he pointed out, but quickly added that the film had to be ready first. “And the pros and cons of coming with the exams have to be carefully weighed before we can take a call on D-day.”

Bedi’s ambitious historical that leads up to the Sepoy Mutiny of 1857 and the public hanging of one of our great revolutionaries, missed it’s second deadline too. And eventually opened last Friday, on June 12, to a rousing reception.

“The opening has been fantastic all over, almost 100 per cent and in some centres up North, theatres are even running over capacity. It’s comparable to Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham that also registered a tremendous initial,” exults Atul Mohan, business executive of the trade weekly Complete Cinema. A note of caution however creeps in almost immedaitely as Mohan admits that despite the applause-worthy start, overall reports have not been encouraging. And on Friday evening itself, a drop was reported for the last show from smaller centres in Punjab where the film is running on current booking.

In the metro cities though the film has been booked on advance right through the extended four-day weekend. This even though ticket rates at sprawling, single screen theatres like Regal in Mumbai have been hiked to Rs 200 and city multiplexes like Fame (Andheri), Fame (Malad) and Fame Raguleela (Kandivali) are running 12 shows a day each.

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Shows at another city multiplex, Cinemax too have been increased in anticipation of public demand. Hiral Kanakia, Director, Cinemax, informs that her theatre is running 12 shows at Thane while the ones at Sion and Mira Road are playing 8 shows each. The Cinemax theatres at Kandivali, Goregaon and Andheri (East) have another 16 shows a day between them. “We’ve almost doubled the screen time at many of our theatres and advance booking has been phenomenal. Till Monday, August 15, all the regular shows are full. Only a few tickets for the morning and early afternoon shows are remaining and even these should be gone by the time the shows start,” she says delightedly. The reason for the huge excitement amongst cinegoers clearly visible in the last few weeks, is undoubtedly Aamir Khan, in Kanakia’s opinion. “This is a first Aamir starrer in four years and no one wants to miss it,” she asserts.

Kumar Kwatra, COO of Shringar Cinemas Ltd. endorses her opinion that Aamir is the film’s USP and it’s biggest draw. Given the actor’s track record and Lagaan’s phenomenal success story, The Rising had raised great expectations not just within the trade but amongst the paying public too. “We opened internet booking two weeks in advance and the response was mind-boggling. Tickets for the first two days have sold out and till Monday we’re up to 75-80 per cent,” he revealed to us on August 10. By the next day he was on TV saying that Fame (Malad), Fame (Andheri) and Fame Raguleela (Kandivali) were booked solid for the next 10 days.

Shringar Cinemas Ltd. in an unprecedented move booked the film at the above-mentioned three Fame theatres for a full two weeks before its release. Explaining the strategy Katra says that Fame cinemas have a regular and devoted clientele who book entire screens for big films. The demand was huge even for Kaal, Bunty Aur Babli, Sarkar and Maine Pyar Kyun Kiya in recent times and even after increasing the number of shows to eight and 10, Kwatra admits, they found it difficult to service their clients. “For a while now the need to book a film for a longer duration has been felt. So this time we planned well and booked The Rising for two weeks in advance even with 12 shows running in each of the three theatres,” he points out, confident that the gamble will pay off.

Booked for two weeks in advance at three Fame theatres in Mumbai Inox, Mumbai, running 15 commercial shows in a day Needs two-week run at 80 per cent attendance to cover investment
His optimism is shared by his Director Balkrishna Shroff who avers that the marketing pattern has changed. While a decade ago a big film was assured of a 10-15 week run and marketed like a five-day Test match, today in an attempt to beat the pirates and black marketeers, producers are flooding the market with prints, distributors booking a film at as many theatres possible in the first couple of weeks and exhibitors increasing the number and at times even the duration of shows to milk the product to the optimum. “It’s like a one-day match with everyone in the trade focusing on overall business rather than the run of business. If I need to make Rs 100 to cover my investment and register a profit, my entire efforts will be concentrated on reaching the target. It’s not important whether I reach it in three days or 30,” Shroff argues.

Given the adversities the Hindi film industry is facing today, he reasons that it would be foolish to stagger releases of big-budget extravaganzas at smaller centres or start quietly and increase the number of prints slowly depending on the public response as was the case earlier with all-time big grossers like Maine Pyar Kiya and Hum Aapke Hain Koun...!.

Veer-Zaara, Sarkar and Maine Pyar Kyun Kiya all released with almost 500 prints and The Rising has upped that figure. There are reports that it’s opened with 900 prints with 100 prints of the English version releasing in UK alone, the highest ever for a Bollywood film in Britain. The trade says that 500-600 prints are in circulation with Aamir Khan himself having urged his producer and distributors to release the film with the maximum number of prints. It reflects a shrewd marketing brain because with no big releases on August 5 and no real competition from any other biggie even on August 12, the audience was ready to hit the theatres with a vengeance especially with August 13 being a second Saturday when many offices are closed followed by Sunday and a national holiday on Monday. With Rs 35 crore at stake for Bobby Bedi and big investments on the part of the distributors and exhibitors everyone was keen to toe his line.

“If a film is hot and expensive like the Rs 35 crore The Rising it makes sense to go for an overkill in the first week not just to beat the pirates but also because a film’s shelf life today is down from 25 weeks to 3-4 weeks. With increased prints and ticket rates producers, distributors and exhibitors have learnt to cash in on saleable product immediately,” rationalises trade analyst Amod Mehra.

Nester D’Souza of Metro Cinema in Mumbai, agrees that “saturation bombing” has become a common distribution ploy in the multiplex era. “The idea is to screen a big release in as many theatres as possible within one catchment area in the first weekend,” he states, pointing out that though The Rising opened at Inox (Nariman Point) with 15 commercial shows, three other city theatres, New Excelsior, Novelty and Roxy are also playing four shows each.

In the suburbs the picture is even more mind-boggling. In Malad, Fame is running 12 shows but that hasn’t stopped Movie Town in the vicinity from giving it eight shows too while Kasturba has four shows daily. Similarly, Fame’s (Andheri) 12-show schedule hasn’t stopped Fun Republic, which is barely a stone’s throw away, from giving the film 12 shows too. Fun Republic, in fact, celebrated its second anniversary with exclusive midnight screenings of The Rising preceeded by a live rendition of the National Anthem conducted by a western orchestra at the stroke of midnight and a fusion music party. Rajesh Menon, business and marketing head, admitted that they had been toying with the idea of late night specials for a while and Ketan Mehta’s patriotic saga coming three days before India’s 58th Independence Day, provided them with a God-sent opportunity to wow their viewers with a memorable cinematic experience. The film that packed in the crowds even in regular shows through the Independence Day weekend and has given the theatre’s management reason to smile after the box-office damper brought on by the unexpected deluge in Mumbai.

In Kolkata too where Hindi films with a few exceptions haven’t brought in the crowds of late, The Rising has generated a huge buzz. Advance booking at Paradise cinema opened on Sunday, August 12, and in three hours flat it had grossed Rs 9 lakh in ticket sales. Tickets at Menoka too were sold out in no time, giving The Rising the biggest ever advance booking in the city.

There’s no debate...The Rising has opened BIG. But can it sustain the enthusiasm generated by a high-powered publicity campaign and Aamir Khan? The excitement for the film in the trade has been unparalled and it has fetched unheard of terms and advances, surpassing even that of Veer-Zaara. Hiral Kanakia however admits that the film will have to run for at least two weeks for them to cover costs. “But with our chain of cinemas playing 8-12 shows everyday, recovery could be faster.”

Nester D’Souza who admits that he’s heard of a city theatre in Kurla registering a drop on the first day itself, agrees with Kankia that a couple of weeks sustained run at an average attendance of 80 per cent, should see the investors through. He believes that the public verdict should be out by Monday, August 15, which he warns is traditionally a “lazy holiday” more so because this year it comes after a Sunday. In fact, the long weekend could have taken many viewers away from the city but that, he admits, hasn’t affected the “initial” in any way. “Lagaan started sluggishly but then picked up steadily. The Rising has opened strongly but the film is carrying mixed reports. In the days of single-screen theatres a film ran on advance booking for the entire first week but today with multiplexes screening 10-12 shiows daily and a seven-screen theatre at every corner, a film runs out of takers by the first Monday,” he rues.

Despite the ripples of apprehension generated by negative reviews that have panned the film for being “too long” and “boring in parts” with the garishness of a costume drama and a mediocre music score from the internationally acclaimed AR Rahman, the General Manager of Inox, Mumbai, where the film was premiered continues to be upbeat. “We’re running 15 commercial shows which is a huge number by any stretch and a first for our cinemas. Eleven of these 15 shows are full till August 15, and the morning shows too are up to 85-90 per cent,” revealed Umesh Bikchandani on August 13. “Except for a small segement of college kids everyone has liked the film.”

According to Nester D’Souza this “small” segement are the primary filmgoers today. “Teenagers in the age-group of 12-25 today constitute the paying public and it’s doubtful if Mangal Pandey can light a spark in these “chilled” out youngsters,” D’Souza warns.

In Ballia, Mangal Pandey’s home town, the film couldn’t be released following dharnas outside Vijay Theatre, attacks on shops selling cassettes and CDs of the film, rail rokos and sit-downs on the Ballia-Barriya highway. People there were upset the film wasn’t shot in Pandey’s ancestral village, Nagwa and were protesting against “distorted historical facts”. Aamir Khan argues that The Rising isn’t a bio-pic of Mangal Pandey but only a record of the last six months of his life till his hanging, so the setting had to be Barrackpore not Ballia.” And we didn’t even shoot in Barrackpore because the town has changed since the 1857. We shot on specially erected sets.”

It’s a reasonable explanation but are people willing to listen? Mujhse Shaadi Karoge, Dus and Manine Pyar Kyun Kiya rode piggy-back on bumper openings to be declared hits in the first week itself. But with a Rs 35 crore investment, The Rising will have to bring in crowds for the next 14 days to rework the Lagaan magic.


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