THANKS TO THE LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURNS: Distributors vouch small is in for the big time

A Delhi-based film distributor arrived in Mumbai to acquire films. He enquired about the price of a Sunil Shetty starrer, and films featuring the other stars. When the prices were quoted, he decided the films would make risky acquisitions, especially since even the mega starrers weren’t living up to their potential at the b-o, where it all mattered. He reckoned he’d much rather buy several small films for the price of one biggie. And guess what his reply to the megastarrers on offer was? “Thanks, but no thanks,” of course.

And this distributor is by no means alone. The distributors as a whole, have begun to shy away from buying films featuring the hefty price tags and mega stars. With biggies right from Mann to Arjun Pandit, Baadshah, Hello Brother, Hindustan Ki Kasam, Kohram, Dil Kya Kare, Hum Tum Pe Marte Hain, Dillagi and Khoobsurat turning out to be disappointments at the b-o, the movie trade at this, the fag end of the millennium, is faced with the law of diminishing returns. Obviously, this will have a lot of repercussions on the production and other sectors, too, in the next millennium.

On the face of it, though, it seems highly unlikely that star prices will plummet in the foreseeable future. What with Hollywood majors like Universal and Columbia evincing an interest in the Indian pie, and planning to step into production, star prices may even shoot up further. The Hollywood films appear likely to make only big budget films, perhaps three to four times the budget of India’s current biggies. And the top Indian producers may be forced to cough up huger outlays for their own productions.

If this is the scenario on one side, sample the other, for every big film currently under production, there are at least three medium to low budget ones on the floor.

“No film has done well in the last four months. With prices of films breaking the Rs 3 crore barrier despite the low returns, how much longer can distributors continue to fund losing propositions?” asks NN Sippy, president of the Indian Motion Picture Distributors Association.

Striking a distress tone, Sippy says the distributors may be left with no option but to gradually shift to buying smaller films.

However, prominent distributor Balkrisna Shroff foresees no immediate change in the star price scenario. “None of the big stars have dates till December 2000. The failure of their films will have no impact on the production of others. Agreed, more small budget films are being made today, but the same number of biggies will be made in the next millennium, too. The film industry will not close down because of a few flops. For every producer who closes shop, two new ones will step in to fill the breach. That’s how the industry has survived all this while,” he said.

Santosh Singh Jain, president of the Central Cine Circuit Association, looks at the crisis in film business more pragmatically. “The industry will not die, but a new order will emerge. There will be a transformation. If more small films are made, the trade will have to acquire them, just as when food is in short supply, people will look for the available alternatives. But I think the small film trend is only a stop gap measure,” Jain predicts.

Shakti Samanta, president of the Indian Motion Picture Producers Association admits the distributors are thinking twice before buying big films. But it’s all a question of the price factor, he reckons. “Big films will always be sold. Even if a few distributors back out, others will continue to buy them,” he says.

Cinematographer turned producer B Gupta clarifies every one can’t make big films any more. “Small films are made within a week or two, with budgets as skimpy as Rs 8-10 lakh. And their producers are happy with returns as low as Rs 50,000 to Rs 1 lakh. Though there is no video piracy for these films their video rights are sold, often for Rs 25,000. The returns here are far safer,” he claims.

Producer RK Sethi says the small films get sold for Rs 40-50 lakh. “Aaya Sawan Zoom Ke was shot in eight days and fetched returns of Rs 3 to four lakh per territory. Munnibai did a business of Rs 25 lakh per territory. FIlms like Maut and Murda did well, too. Since the market for big films has crashed, the distributors prefer to buy small films where the risk factor is minimal. And even the well-known character artistes like Shakti Kapoor are willing to work in them — on a daily wage basis, since they shoot for hardly eight days,” says Sethi.

Little wonder, then, that people are gradually being weaned away from thinking big. It only remains to be seen how long this era when small is in, lasts.

By MSM Desai